Macro-économie / Taux / Invesco / Investisseur souverains
Macro-économie / Taux
Invesco / Investisseur souverains
Les investisseurs souverains plébiscitent l’obligataire / Les actifs alternatifs ont également la cote
Alors que les taux d’intérêt réels ont fortement augmenté ces derniers temps, une enquête du gestionnaire d’actifs Invesco rapporte que l’exposition aux obligations des fonds souverains et Banques centrales est celle qui est la plus susceptible d’augmenter à court terme. Ces derniers, qui ont pour plus de 20.000 milliards sous gestion, montrent par ailleurs de plus en plus d’intérêt pour la classe d’actifs infrastructures.
Karim SAHIB / AFP
Les titres à revenu fixe ont du succès. D’après l’enquête du gestionnaire d’actifs Invesco, menée auprès de 142 directeurs des investissements travaillant au sein de 85 fonds souverains et 57 banques centrales (21.000 milliards de dollars d’actifs sous gestion), les obligations sont la classe d’actifs pour laquelle leur exposition est la plus susceptible d’augmenter au cours des prochains mois.
En effet, le pourcentage net des investisseurs déclarant leur intention d’augmenter la part des titres à revenu fixes dans l’allocation d’actifs globale atteint 28%. "Les rendements attendus sont meilleurs que depuis de très nombreuses années, et je suis donc plus optimiste pour l'avenir", a déclaré un investisseur souverain du Moyen-Orient.
Leur rendement a très fortement augmenté sous l’effet de l’augmentation par les Banques centrales de leurs taux d’intérêt directeur de plusieurs centaines de points de base pour combattre l’inflation. "Il s'agit du cycle de hausse le plus agressif que j'aie jamais connu et, malgré cela, l'économie mondiale reste très résistante. À mon avis, c'est bon pour les obligations, bon pour les actions et bon en général pour les actifs financiers", a ajouté un investisseur souverain chargé du développement, également situé au Moyen-Orient.
Cependant, le fait que les obligations n’aient pas réussi à protéger les portefeuilles contre la correction qui a eu lieu l’an passé a modifié la perception de cette classe d'actifs chez les investisseurs.
Appétit pour les infrastructures
"Les investisseurs souverains abandonnent progressivement leur approche "automatique" en matière de diversification et adoptent désormais une approche plus active et tactique. Ils cherchent ainsi à créer de la valeur en rééquilibrant activement leur portefeuille entre différentes stratégies obligataires et en s’appuyant sur un large éventail de stratégies, à l’instar des actions cotées ", rapporte Invesco, qui note que, "les segments obligataires alternatifs peuvent devenir plus prégnants, les options les plus attrayantes étant la dette privée, le haut rendement et la dette d'infrastructure ".
Les infrastructures sont d’ailleurs considérées comme la classe d'actifs la plus attrayante dans les cinq années à venir (devant les obligations, le private equity et les actions cotées). L’objectif d’atteinte de la neutralité carbone d’ici à 2050 n’y est pas pour rien.
De fait, "la production d'énergie renouvelable suscite un intérêt considérable dans le domaine des infrastructures, 81 % des souverains la considérant comme un secteur attractif. En deuxième position, se trouvent la transmission et la livraison d'énergie à 65 %. Cette tendance est en partie due à la guerre en Europe et à la crise énergétique qui a suivi, entraînant une demande mondiale croissante pour les infrastructures liées aux énergies renouvelables ", explique le rapport.
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