Macro-économie / Taux
Macro-économie / Taux
Zone euro : l’appétit des entreprises pour le crédit bancaire continuerait de se dégrader / Un rebond est toutefois anticipé
La transmission du resserrement monétaire de la Banque centrale européenne poursuit son petit bonhomme de chemin. C’est le message envoyé par l’enquête trimestrielle que l’institution de Francfort conduit auprès des banques de la zone euro (Bank Lending Survey). Cette étude montre que le pourcentage net de banques signalant une baisse de la demande de prêts de la part des entreprises a atteint 20 % lors du quatrième trimestre 2023. Alors que la BCE a relevé ses taux d’intérêt directeurs de 450 points de base entre juillet 2022 et septembre 2023, le pourcentage net de banques signalant une baisse de la demande de prêts de la part des entreprises avait atteint un pic lors du deuxième trimestre 2023 (42 %).
Pendant l’automne dernier, le recul de la demande de prêts a de nouveau été provoqué par le niveau général des taux d’intérêt et par la baisse de l’investissement fixe (que ce soit pour les PME ou les grandes entreprises). " En revanche, les besoins de financement des stocks et des fonds de roulement ont contribué de manière légèrement positive à la demande de prêts. Cette évolution est due à trois des quatre plus grandes économies de la zone euro (à l’exception de l’Allemagne) ", indique la BCE. Le refinancement ou la restructuration de la dette a également contribué positivement à la demande de prêts, tandis que l’impact du financement des fusions et acquisitions a été globalement neutre au niveau de la zone euro, lit-on dans l’enquête.
L’ensemble des secteurs économiques est concerné par ce moindre appétit pour le crédit bancaire, néanmoins certains sont plus affectés que d’autres. C’est le cas de l’immobilier et de la construction. Elle refléterait "la hausse des coûts de financement, la baisse de la valeur des garanties [collatéral, ndlr] et les changements structurels dans le segment de l’immobilier commercial", d’après l’enquête, qui rapporte que "la hausse des taux d’intérêt débiteurs et des coûts de construction a également freiné la demande de prêts dans le secteur de la construction au second semestre 2023".
Au premier semestre 2024, les banques de la zone euro s’attendent à une nouvelle baisse nette modérée de la demande de prêts dans plusieurs secteurs économiques, principalement concentrés dans l’immobilier et la construction.
Elles anticipent une demande de prêts globalement inchangée dans l’industrie manufacturière et une légère augmentation de la demande de prêts dans le secteur des services. "Ces prévisions seraient globalement conformes à la reprise progressive attendue de l’activité économique de la zone euro à partir du premier trimestre 2024, même si certaines poches de vulnérabilité devraient subsister", juge la BCE. Au global, les banques prévoient une augmentation de la demande de prêts de la part des entreprises (pourcentage net de 2 %) au premier trimestre 2024, ce qui serait une première depuis le deuxième trimestre 2022.
Alors que le Conseil des gouverneurs se réunit ce jeudi pour évoquer la conduite de la politique monétaire, cette nouvelle enquête lui confirmerait que "la transmission monétaire reste forte et que l’activité économique restera freinée par une politique restrictive au cours des prochains trimestres", selon Bert Colijn, économiste senior chez ING qui juge que cela "ouvre la voie à de premières baisses de taux dans le courant de l’année".
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