Macro-économie / Taux
Macro-économie / Taux
La Cnuced alerte sur les retombées économiques des perturbations du commerce maritime / Envolée de l’inflation en vue ?
Les perturbations du transport maritime mondial ne sont pas sans inquiéter. La Conférence des Nations unies sur le commerce et le développement (Cnuced), organe subsidiaire de l’Assemblée générale des Nations Unies, a publié un rapport où elle alerte sur la situation. Les récentes attaques contre des navires commerciaux en mer Rouge ont gravement affecté le transport maritime par le canal de Suez, a indiqué l’organisme, qui rappelle que cela vient s’ajouter aux perturbations en cours dans la mer Noire en raison de la guerre en Ukraine, qui a entraîné des changements sur les routes commerciales du pétrole et des céréales, modifiant les schémas établis.
"En outre, le canal de Panama, artère essentielle reliant les océans Atlantique et Pacifique, est confronté à un autre problème : la baisse du niveau d’eau. Celle-ci a suscité des inquiétudes quant à la résilience à long terme des chaînes d’approvisionnement mondiales, soulignant la fragilité de l’infrastructure commerciale mondiale. Le nombre total de transits par le canal de Panama a chuté de 49 % par rapport à son apogée", indique la Cnuced.
D’après la Cnuced, les transits par le canal de Suez ont diminué de 42 % par rapport à leur pic. Les principaux acteurs du secteur du transport maritime ayant temporairement suspendu les transits par le canal de Suez, les transits hebdomadaires de navires porte-conteneurs ont chuté de 67 %, et la capacité de transport de conteneurs, les transits de navires-citernes et les transporteurs de gaz ont connu des baisses significatives.
L’incertitude croissante et l’abandon du canal de Suez au profit du cap de Bonne-Espérance ont un coût. Les taux de fret moyens de transport de conteneurs au départ de Shanghai ont plus que doublé depuis le début du mois de décembre (+122 %). Ils ont été multipliés par trois vers l’Europe (+256 %) et sont même supérieurs à la moyenne (+162 %) vers la côte ouest des États-Unis, bien qu’ils ne passent pas par Suez.
Cela pourrait avoir des conséquences économiques "potentiellement considérables que pourraient avoir des perturbations prolongées du transport maritime par conteneurs, menaçant les chaînes d’approvisionnement mondiales et risquant de retarder les livraisons, ce qui entraînerait une hausse des coûts et de l’inflation", juge la Cnuced, qui s’attend à ce que " l’impact de la hausse des taux de fret sera pleinement ressenti par les consommateurs d’ici un an".
La Commission européenne s’est récemment intéressée au sujet compte tenu des retombées que cela pourrait avoir sur l’inflation du Vieux continent. "La hausse des frais de transport devrait exercer une pression à la hausse limitée sur l’inflation", juge-t-on à Bruxelles. Il faut dire que "les coûts de fret ne représentent qu’une très petite partie de la valeur des marchandises, et dans les produits électroniques à prix élevé tels que les ordinateurs portables ou les téléphones mobiles, la part n’est même que de l’ordre du millième", explique Julian Hinz, directeur du centre de recherche sur la politique commerciale de l’IfW Kiel.
JPMorgan avance qu’il y aurait une augmentation de 0,27 point de l’inflation mondiale à la suite d’une hausse durable d’environ 150 % des coûts de transport par conteneur. Pour la zone euro, ABN Amro estime que la hausse des tarifs maritimes pourrait augmenter l’inflation des biens de 1 point de pourcentage et l’inflation globale de 0,3 point. Les calculs effectués par Goldman Sachs et l’OCDE donnent des ordres de grandeur équivalents.
La BCE a de son côté examiné les effets d’un scénario de perturbations maritimes plus prolongées. L’inflation dans la zone euro serait supérieure d’environ 0,25 point de pourcentage au scénario de référence en 2024 et 2025, et l’impact atteindrait aux alentours de 0,10 point en 2026.
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