Macro-économie / Taux
Macro-économie / Taux
France : les ménages boudent le crédit / Taux de détention au plus bas depuis 34 ans
En 2023, la proportion de ménages détenant des crédits a atteint 42,7 %, un plancher inédit depuis 1989, d’après l’Observatoire des crédits aux ménages, qui pointe la dégradation de l’environnement macroéconomique. Pour le premier semestre 2024, les intentions de souscrire des crédits immobiliers sont les plus faibles de ces 25 dernières années.
FREDERIC PETRY / HANS LUCAS / HANS LUCAS VIA AFP
Le crédit n’a pas la cote chez les ménages. En 2023, leur taux de détention s’est affiché à 42,7 %, d’après l’Observatoire des crédits aux ménages (OCM), soit un plus bas la création de ce dernier en 1989. "Le contexte économique de 2023, avec l’inflation, la politique monétaire de hausse des taux visant à la réduire, la situation du marché immobilier français, explique en grande partie les résultats de l’étude de l’OCM", ont commenté Maya Atig, directrice générale de la Fédération bancaire française et Solenne Lepage, déléguée générale de l’Association française des sociétés financières (ASF).
Dans le détail, la détention des crédits à la consommation recule pour la sixième année consécutive, quel que soit leur réseau de distribution. Le taux de détention de ces crédits baisse à 20,9 % (contre 24,9 % en 2020), soit le niveau le plus bas depuis 1989. "Près de 90 % des crédits à la consommation sont utilisés pour acheter un (des) bien(s) d’équipement de la maison, une automobile, une moto ou payer des travaux d’amélioration du logement", rappelle l’OCM. Le taux de détention des crédits immobiliers a également baissé en 2023 (29,6 % contre 30,1 % en 2022 et 31,4 % en 2020) pour revenir à son niveau du milieu des années 2000.
Entre décembre 2021 et décembre 2023, en raison du resserrement de la politique monétaire de la Banque centrale européenne (BCE), le taux d’intérêt des crédits à la consommation aux ménages, hors renégociations, est passé de 3,41 % à 6,43 %. En outre, toujours hors renégociations, le taux d’intérêt des crédits nouveaux à l’habitat a grimpé de 298 points de base à 4,04 % ; en conséquence de quoi, la production mensuelle de crédits nouveaux à l’habitat a dégringolé de moitié, d’après les données de la Banque de France.
"Des signaux positifs (ralentissement de l’inflation, perspectives de baisse des taux de la BCE, baisse des prix de l’immobilier, stabilité des règles…) pourraient, en cours d’année, avoir un impact sur leurs projets, avec une demande accrue de crédit immobilier ou à la consommation. Du côté de l’offre, le robinet du crédit est ouvert pour accompagner les projets solvables par des prêts responsables.", ont soutenu Maya Atig et Solenne Lepage.
Les ménages ont fait part d’intentions peu ambitieuses de souscrire de nouveaux crédits pour le premier semestre 2024, rapporte l’OCM. Les intentions de souscrire des crédits immobiliers sont les plus faibles de ces 25 dernières années : à 2,8 %, elles s’établissent très en deçà de leur moyenne de longue période (4,8 % depuis le début des années 2000). Les intentions concernant les crédits à la consommation "se dégradent encore, mais un peu seulement : à 3,5 %, contre 4,2 % sur longue période".
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