Macro-économie / Taux
Macro-économie / Taux
Le rythme de la transition énergétique mondiale s’essoufflerait / Volatilité et géopolitique compliqueraient la donne
L’économie mondiale verrait la transition énergétique mollir. C’est ce qu’on peut lire dans un rapport réalisé par le Forum économique mondial et le cabinet Accenture. "La volatilité économique, les tensions géopolitiques accrues et les mutations technologiques ont tous eu un impact, venant compliquer la trajectoire et le rythme de progression de la transition", indique le rapport.
Pour parvenir à ce diagnostic, les auteurs de ce travail s’appuient sur un indice de transition énergétique (ETI). Il couvre 120 pays en matière de performances de leur système énergétique actuel et de préparation à la transition, notés sur la base de 46 indicateurs. La performance du système est pondérée en fonction de l’équité, de la sécurité et de la durabilité. La préparation à la transition quant à elle est divisée en deux groupes : les facteurs essentiels et les facteurs favorables. Les facteurs essentiels comprennent la réglementation et l’engagement politique, ainsi que le financement et l’investissement. Les facteurs favorables comprennent l’innovation, les infrastructures, l’éducation et le capital humain.
Il en ressort que les scores moyens de l’ETI à l’échelle mondiale ont atteint un niveau record. Cependant, le ralentissement du rythme de la transition énergétique mondiale, observé pour la première fois en 2022, s’est intensifié cette année. Le rapport 2024 montre que l’amélioration sur trois ans des scores ETI mondiaux entre 2021 et 2024 est presque quatre fois moins importante que l’augmentation sur la période 2018-2021. En outre, le rapport indique que 83 % des pays ont obtenu des résultats inférieurs à ceux de l’année dernière dans au moins l’une des principales dimensions de la transition énergétique : durabilité, équité et sécurité.
L’Europe reste en tête des classements ETI, les 10 premiers en 2024 étant exclusivement des pays de cette région. La Suède et le Danemark dominent le classement et sont dans le trio de tête chaque année depuis dix ans. Ils sont suivis par la Finlande, la Suisse et la France. "Ces pays bénéficient d’un engagement politique fort, d’investissements importants en recherche et développement et d’une adoption accrue des énergies propres, accélérée par la situation géopolitique régionale, les politiques d’efficacité énergétique et la tarification du carbone. La France entre dans le top 5, grâce à de récentes mesures d’efficacité énergétique ayant permis de réduire l’intensité énergétique au cours de cette année", note le rapport.
L’écart entre les scores ETI globaux s’est réduit entre les économies avancées et les économies en développement, et le "centre de gravité" de la transition se déplace vers les pays en développement. "Toutefois, les investissements dans les énergies propres restent concentrés dans les économies avancées et en Chine. Cela souligne la nécessité d’un soutien financier de la part des pays avancés afin de faciliter une transition énergétique équitable dans les pays émergents et en développement", juge le rapport, qui estime qu’une "prise de décision politique avant-gardiste est également nécessaire dans tous les pays afin de favoriser des conditions d’investissement réellement propices".
"L’indice de transition énergétique de cette année délivre un message clair : il est urgent d’agir. Les décideurs mondiaux doivent prendre des mesures audacieuses pour relancer la transition vers un avenir énergétique équitable, sûr et durable. C’est essentiel pour les populations, les économies globales et la lutte contre le changement climatique", affirme Espen Mehlum, directeur de l’intelligence de la transition énergétique et de l’accélération régionale au Forum Économique Mondial.
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