Macro-économie / Taux
Macro-économie / Taux
Alerte : l’exécutif dévoile ses projections macroéconomiques et budgétaires pluriannuelles
D’après le gouvernement, la croissance du Produit intérieur brut (PIB) hexagonal s’établira à 1,1 % en 2025, 1,4 % en 2026, 1,5 % en 2027, 1,5 % en 2028, 1 % en 2029, 1 % en 2030 et 1 % en 2031, indique le plan budgétaire et structurel à moyen terme, document prochainement envoyé à la Commission européenne.
Le déficit public, lui, devrait passer de 6,1 % du PIB en 2024 à 1,7 % en 2031, avec un retour sous les 3 % en 2029 à 2,8 %, tandis que le taux d’endettement public s’afficherait à 113,5 % du PIB dans sept ans contre 109,9 % fin 2023.
"À moyen terme, le soutien monétaire, le retour à la normale de l’inflation et un rythme d’ajustement budgétaire moindre permettraient à la croissance de dépasser son potentiel", fait notamment valoir le gouvernement dans ce document de 219 pages que WanSquare a pu consulter. « À moyen terme, le principal aléa porte sur l’hypothèse d’un reflux très progressif du taux d’épargne des ménages français vers son niveau moyen d’avant crise », ajoute-t-il.
Antoine Armand, ministre de l'Economie, des Finances et de l'Industrie - Magali Cohen / Hans Lucas / Hans Lucas via AFP
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