Macro-économie / Taux / Zero Covid / Institut économique Molinari
Macro-économie / Taux
Zero Covid / Institut économique Molinari
De la supériorité du "Zéro Covid"
Contrairement à la France, certains pays ont fait le choix d’éradiquer la Covid-19 de leur territoire. Deux chercheurs de l’Institut économique Molinari démontrent les bienfaits économiques et sanitaires retirés par les nations ayant poursuivi cette stratégie.
Emmanuel Macron
L’arbitrage entre la santé et l’économie est un leurre. C’est peut-être la leçon majeure que l’on pourrait tirer de la nouvelle étude de l’Institut économique Molinari menée par Cécile Philippe et Nicolas Marques. Les deux chercheurs montrent que les pays ayant poursuivi une stratégie "Zéro Covid" ont eu de meilleures performances que les autres, tant sur le plan économique et social que sanitaire.
Depuis le début de cette crise pandémique, deux types de politique sanitaire ont principalement été conduits. D'une part, il y a eu la stratégie "d’atténuation" ; elle a visé à "limiter l’ampleur de la dissémination du virus. L’objectif principal est d’éviter la saturation des services de santé. Les mesures de contrôle sont renforcées au fur et à mesure que le virus devient plus prévalent. C’est cette stratégie que nous poursuivons en France", explique l’étude. D'autre part, a émergé une stratégie "d’élimination", c’est-à-dire d’"éradiquer le virus [...]" . Si ces deux stratégies visent à réduire les interactions, "leurs finalités diffèrent". Plus concrètement, "la distinction n’est donc pas tant de confiner ou pas mais plutôt de décider dans quel objectif, à quel moment, de quelle manière on confine puis on dé-confine". Ainsi, quand la France a cherché à éviter la saturation de ses capacités hospitalières, les pays "Zéro Covid" se sont efforcés de "rentabiliser au maximum l’effort déployé dans la lutte contre le virus pour permettre aux individus de retrouver des vies normales".
Alors que de nombreux intervenants dans le débat public hexagonal pestaient contre le coût économique que suppose une stratégie "Zéro Covid", l’on peut constater un an après qu’il est bien moindre que celui supporté par la France et les autres économies ayant mené des stratégies analogues. En 2020, le Produit intérieur brut (PIB) des pays ayant appliqué une stratégie "Zéro Covid" ou assimilée (Australie, Nouvelle-Zélande, Corée du Sud) a subi une contraction de 1,6 % en moyenne contre 5 % pour les onze pays du G10 (8,1 % pour la France).
Ce n’est pas tout, la vie sociale a également été davantage préservée. En effet, lorsqu'on examine les données ayant trait à la mobilité - compilées par Google - concernant les cafés, restaurants, hôtels, commerces non alimentaires et, plus généralement, celles sur les loisirs et activités culturelles, la différence est frappante. "Les données de Google montrent que la fréquentation de ces zones a reculé de 14 % en janvier-février 2021 (par rapport à 2020) dans les pays appliquant la stratégie Zéro Covid. Ce recul est bien moindre que celui constaté dans les pays appliquant la stratégie dite d’atténuation (- 35 %)", écrivent les deux chercheurs.
Enfin, au 20 mars 2021, la France avait enregistré 42 fois plus de morts par million d'habitants que les pays "Zéro Covid".
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