Macro-économie / Taux / Conseil de coopération du Golfe / diversification
Macro-économie / Taux
Conseil de coopération du Golfe / diversification
Une diversification encore timorée dans les pays du Golfe
Le rapport de Moody's montre des progrès dans la diversification de leurs activités mais il reste des progrès à faire pour se mettre à l'abri de la volatilité des prix des hydrocarbures et de la diminution de la demande, à l'approche imminente de la transition énergétique.
Pétrole - forage
Moody’s a publié lundi un rapport sur la dépendance du Conseil de coopération du Golfe (CCG) aux rentes pétrolières. Il souligne en particulier la nécessité de se diversifier malgré les difficultés. Pour rappel, le CCG est l’organisation regroupant les pays du Golfe persique : Bahreïn, le Koweït, Oman, le Qatar, l’Arabie saoudite et les Émirats arabes unis (EAU).
Depuis le choc de 2014, les prix du pétrole ont diminué engendrant un amenuisement de la part des hydrocarbures dans les revenus nationaux. Cet évènement, additionné aux pressions sociales grandissantes issues des Printemps arabes et de la détérioration du solde public, a poussé les pays du CCG à construire leur vision nationale à long terme, comme la Vision Saudi 2030, établie en 2016.
Il est important de garder à l’esprit qu’il existe une corrélation entre la rente de ces ressources et l’émergence de la diversification. Plus la rente est importante, plus il y a aura de fonds financiers à investir. Or, le modèle rentier est instable à cause des fortes fluctuations des prix du pétrole. Pour illustrer, lorsque le prix du baril a décliné de 35 % en moyenne en 2020, les recettes publiques et les exportations ont chuté de 5 % à 15 % de PIB. Ces chocs réguliers provoqués par l’extérieur sont préoccupants pour ces pays.
En outre, dans le but d’attirer les investissements étrangers, les pays du Golfe persique ont tendance à avoir des politiques de taxes très accommodantes avec des taux très bas voire nuls, que ce soit pour les entreprises ou les particuliers ; cette faible taxation, couplée à leur vulnérabilité face aux chocs, laisse la porte ouverte à des récessions que les pouvoirs publics ont du mal à combattre. Moody’s ne s’attend alors pas à ce que la baisse des dépenses publiques puisse mieux absorber les futurs chocs. Pire encore, plus les gouvernements réduisent le budget, moins ils ont de liberté d’action lors de la prochaine contraction de l'économie.
Il en résulte que les recettes fiscales des activités diversifiées ne sont pas encore dominantes pour l’instant. En effet, tandis que le PIB est construit à seulement 20 % autour des hydrocarbures, ce secteur contribue à plus de 50 % en moyenne des revenus du CCG. Malgré tout, Bahreïn et l’Arabie saoudite ont bien progressé depuis 2014. Leurs recettes fiscales hors hydrocarbures s’élèvent en 2020 à plus de 45 % des revenus totaux contre respectivement environ 15 % et 12 % en 2014. Au contraire, le Koweït, le Qatar, Oman et Abu Dhabi peinent à atteindre les 25 % de part dans les recettes fiscales.
Par ailleurs, la transition énergétique étant en marche, la demande en pétrole va s’amenuiser dans les décennies à venir. L’Agence Internationale de l’Énergie, en se basant sur les intentions politiques actuelles et les objectifs d’émission de gaz à effet de serre, estime que la demande en pétrole devrait grimper à un taux de croissance annuel moyen de 0,4 % et la demande en gaz à un taux de 1,2 %. Néanmoins, ces chiffres sont probablement surévalués en considérant l’engagement croissant des Etats et des entreprises dans la transition.
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