Macro-économie / Taux / Organisation internationale du travail
Macro-économie / Taux
Organisation internationale du travail
L’ombre du ralentissement économique mondial plane sur le marché du travail / L’OIT prévoit une croissance de l’emploi deux fois plus lente
Du fait du ralentissement de la croissance mondiale, la situation devrait se dégrader sur le marché du travail. Il devrait y avoir deux millions de chômeurs supplémentaires cette année, d’après l’Organisation internationale du travail, soit une hausse de 0,1 point du taux de chômage mondial.
Gilbert F. Houngbo, directeur général de l'Organisation internationale du travail - BRITTA PEDERSEN / DPA / dpa Picture-Alliance via AFP
L’année 2024 ne sera pas favorable au marché du travail. Les tendances observées l’an passé, marquées par la résilience de ce dernier, pourraient en réalité découler du caractère retardé de l’emploi en tant qu’indicateur, ce qui implique que les faiblesses dans la création d’emplois se manifestent après le ralentissement de la croissance économique, estime l’Organisation internationale du travail (OIT) dans son rapport sur les perspectives de l’emploi.
Rappelons que la croissance du Produit intérieur brut (PIB) mondial s’est établie à 3,2 % en 2023, après 3,4 % en 2022, entre autres à cause des retombées liées au resserrement monétaire mené par les Banques centrales.
Au niveau mondial, l’emploi devrait continuer d’augmenter en 2024 mais son rythme de progression annuel ne s’élèvera qu’à 0,8 %, quand il se situait à 2,2 % en 2023. "Les projections pour 2025 n’offrent guère d’optimisme, anticipant une croissance de l’emploi de seulement 1,1 %, mettant ainsi en lumière les défis à venir", prévient l’organisation basée à Genève.
En conséquence de quoi, le taux de chômage mondial devrait très légèrement croître, passant de 5,1 % en 2023 à 5,2 % en 2024 puis rester inchangé en 2025. La dégradation du marché du travail se traduira par une augmentation de plus de 2 millions du nombre de chômeurs en 2024, leurs effectifs passant de 188,6 millions en 2023 à 190,8 millions cette année.
Dans le détail, la situation est particulièrement préoccupante dans les pays à revenu élevé, où la croissance de l’emploi devrait devenir négative en 2024 ou très légèrement positive en 2025, préviennent les économistes de l’OIT.
Tant et si bien que près de la moitié de la hausse du nombre de nouveaux chômeurs cette année devrait provenir des pays à revenus élevés. Il s’agit d’ailleurs du seul groupe de pays où le taux de chômage augmente, passant de 4,5 % à 4,7 %.
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