Macro-économie / Taux / Forum économique mondial / chefs économistes
Macro-économie / Taux
Forum économique mondial / chefs économistes
Le poids majeur que pourrait avoir la variable géopolitique dans les décisions des entreprises en 2024 / Elle serait le deuxième facteur prépondérant selon les chefs économistes mondiaux
Interrogés par le Forum économique mondial dans le cadre d’une étude sur leurs perspectives, près d’une trentaine de chefs économistes estiment qu’après la conjoncture, la géopolitique sera le principal déterminant de la décision des entreprises cette année, ce, aux côtés de la politique monétaire et des marchés financiers.
Artur Widak / NurPhoto / NurPhoto via AFP
La prégnance du facteur géopolitique ne se dément pas. C’est en tout cas l’un des éléments ressortant d’un rapport du Forum économique mondial (WEF) où vingt-neuf chefs économistes appartenant aux plus grosses institutions de la planète (entreprises et organisations internationales) sont interrogés sur un vaste panel de problématiques. Les variables déterminant les prises de décisions des entreprises en font partie.
Les facteurs économiques fondamentaux occupent une place majeure. Les sondés jugent que la santé globale de l’économie mondiale est le premier moteur de la prise de décision, et l’écrasante majorité d’entre eux met également en avant le rôle de la politique monétaire (86 %), des marchés financiers (86 %) et des conditions du marché de l’emploi (79 %).
Jusque-là rien de surprenant. "Fait peut-être plus notable encore, il existe également un fort consensus sur l’importance des facteurs géopolitiques et de politique intérieure. Environ 86 % des personnes interrogées s’accordent à dire que la géopolitique influencera la prise de décision des entreprises cette année, la proportion de celles qui considèrent cette éventualité comme extrêmement probable (61 %) étant nettement plus élevée que pour tout autre facteur cité, y compris les objectifs de croissance des entreprises. Conformément à cette tendance, environ 71 % des économistes en chef s’attendent également à ce que les stratégies des entreprises soient influencées par des facteurs politiques nationaux", souligne le rapport.
D’après les auteurs de l’étude cela mettrait en lumière l’interconnexion croissante entre les évolutions politiques et économiques mondiales et l’incertitude quant à l’ampleur des risques politiques et géopolitiques. "Certains signes montrent que certaines entreprises se concentrent sur la préparation aux perturbations potentielles à venir. L’émission d’obligations d’entreprises a atteint son niveau le plus élevé depuis les années 1990, ce qui suggère que les entreprises tentent de sécuriser leur financement avant une période de turbulences sur les marchés. […] l’élection à venir pèse sur la prise de décision des entreprises. Morgan Stanley souligne que la part des investisseurs préoccupés par les élections américaines a atteint 31 % au premier trimestre 2024, contre 26 % à la fin de 2023", indique le rapport.
Si la géopolitique peut avoir exercé une influence sur elles, une proportion plus faible de chef économistes (55 %) s’attend toutefois à ce que les conditions de la chaîne d’approvisionnement soient une variable clé pour les entreprises en 2024. "Cela reflète probablement, en partie, les mesures déjà prises par les entreprises pour restructurer leurs chaînes d’approvisionnement au cours des dernières années", lit-on dans l’étude.
© Copyright WanSquare
Reproduction et diffusion interdites sans autorisation écrite
Reproduction et diffusion interdites sans autorisation écrite
Vous souhaitez réagir à cet article ou apporter une précision ?
Commentez cet article
À lire aussi
06/06/9200 - 17:16
01/01/1970 - 01:00
01/01/1970 - 01:00
01/01/1970 - 01:00
[NOTICE] Undefined index: extension in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php (line 519)
Notice: Undefined index: extension in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php on line 519
[NOTICE] exif_imagetype(): Read error! in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php (line 521)
Notice: exif_imagetype(): Read error! in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php on line 521
[NOTICE] exif_imagetype(): Read error! in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php (line 525)
Notice: exif_imagetype(): Read error! in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php on line 525
[WARNING] imagecreatefromjpeg(): gd-jpeg: JPEG library reports unrecoverable error: Empty input file in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php (line 537)
Warning: imagecreatefromjpeg(): gd-jpeg: JPEG library reports unrecoverable error: Empty input file in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php on line 537
[WARNING] imagecreatefromjpeg(): '/home/ppd_wansquare/public_html/images/bibli/' is not a valid JPEG file in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php (line 537)
Warning: imagecreatefromjpeg(): '/home/ppd_wansquare/public_html/images/bibli/' is not a valid JPEG file in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php on line 537
[WARNING] imagesx() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php (line 542)
Warning: imagesx() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php on line 542
[WARNING] imagesy() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php (line 542)
Warning: imagesy() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php on line 542
[WARNING] Division by zero in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php (line 542)
Warning: Division by zero in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php on line 542
[WARNING] imagesx() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php (line 554)
Warning: imagesx() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php on line 554
[WARNING] imagesy() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php (line 555)
Warning: imagesy() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php on line 555
[WARNING] imagecreatetruecolor(): Invalid image dimensions in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php (line 558)
Warning: imagecreatetruecolor(): Invalid image dimensions in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php on line 558
[WARNING] imagealphablending() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php (line 559)
Warning: imagealphablending() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php on line 559
[WARNING] imagesavealpha() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php (line 560)
Warning: imagesavealpha() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php on line 560
[WARNING] imagesavealpha() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php (line 562)
Warning: imagesavealpha() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php on line 562
[WARNING] imagecolorallocatealpha() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php (line 563)
Warning: imagecolorallocatealpha() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php on line 563
[WARNING] imagecolortransparent() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php (line 564)
Warning: imagecolortransparent() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php on line 564
[WARNING] imagefill() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php (line 565)
Warning: imagefill() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php on line 565
[WARNING] imagecopyresampled() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php (line 567)
Warning: imagecopyresampled() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php on line 567
[WARNING] imagepng() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php (line 569)
Warning: imagepng() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php on line 569
[WARNING] rename(/home/ppd_wansquare/public_html/images/thumbs/176_112_.tmp,/home/ppd_wansquare/public_html/images/thumbs/176_112_): No such file or directory in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php (line 570)
Warning: rename(/home/ppd_wansquare/public_html/images/thumbs/176_112_.tmp,/home/ppd_wansquare/public_html/images/thumbs/176_112_): No such file or directory in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php on line 570
[WARNING] imagedestroy() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php (line 571)
Warning: imagedestroy() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php on line 571
[WARNING] imagedestroy() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php (line 572)
Warning: imagedestroy() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php on line 572
[NOTICE] Undefined index: extension in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php (line 519)
Notice: Undefined index: extension in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php on line 519
[NOTICE] exif_imagetype(): Read error! in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php (line 521)
Notice: exif_imagetype(): Read error! in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php on line 521
[NOTICE] exif_imagetype(): Read error! in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php (line 525)
Notice: exif_imagetype(): Read error! in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php on line 525
[WARNING] imagecreatefromjpeg(): gd-jpeg: JPEG library reports unrecoverable error: Empty input file in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php (line 537)
Warning: imagecreatefromjpeg(): gd-jpeg: JPEG library reports unrecoverable error: Empty input file in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php on line 537
[WARNING] imagecreatefromjpeg(): '/home/ppd_wansquare/public_html/images/bibli/' is not a valid JPEG file in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php (line 537)
Warning: imagecreatefromjpeg(): '/home/ppd_wansquare/public_html/images/bibli/' is not a valid JPEG file in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php on line 537
[WARNING] imagesx() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php (line 542)
Warning: imagesx() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php on line 542
[WARNING] imagesy() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php (line 542)
Warning: imagesy() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php on line 542
[WARNING] Division by zero in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php (line 542)
Warning: Division by zero in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php on line 542
[WARNING] imagesx() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php (line 554)
Warning: imagesx() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php on line 554
[WARNING] imagesy() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php (line 555)
Warning: imagesy() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php on line 555
[WARNING] imagecreatetruecolor(): Invalid image dimensions in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php (line 558)
Warning: imagecreatetruecolor(): Invalid image dimensions in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php on line 558
[WARNING] imagealphablending() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php (line 559)
Warning: imagealphablending() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php on line 559
[WARNING] imagesavealpha() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php (line 560)
Warning: imagesavealpha() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php on line 560
[WARNING] imagesavealpha() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php (line 562)
Warning: imagesavealpha() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php on line 562
[WARNING] imagecolorallocatealpha() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php (line 563)
Warning: imagecolorallocatealpha() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php on line 563
[WARNING] imagecolortransparent() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php (line 564)
Warning: imagecolortransparent() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php on line 564
[WARNING] imagefill() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php (line 565)
Warning: imagefill() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php on line 565
[WARNING] imagecopyresampled() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php (line 567)
Warning: imagecopyresampled() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php on line 567
[WARNING] imagepng() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php (line 569)
Warning: imagepng() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php on line 569
[WARNING] rename(/home/ppd_wansquare/public_html/images/thumbs/176_112_.tmp,/home/ppd_wansquare/public_html/images/thumbs/176_112_): No such file or directory in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php (line 570)
Warning: rename(/home/ppd_wansquare/public_html/images/thumbs/176_112_.tmp,/home/ppd_wansquare/public_html/images/thumbs/176_112_): No such file or directory in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php on line 570
[WARNING] imagedestroy() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php (line 571)
Warning: imagedestroy() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php on line 571
[WARNING] imagedestroy() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php (line 572)
Warning: imagedestroy() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/ppd_wansquare/protected/helpers/helpers.php on line 572