Macro-économie / Taux / Raphaël Gallardo
Macro-économie / Taux
Raphaël Gallardo
L'année 2022 vue par... Raphaël Gallardo, chef économiste de Carmignac
EXCLUSIF.
WanSquare a demandé à des économistes et des dirigeants de grandes entreprises de livrer leur vision pour 2022 après une année 2021 marquée par la reprise mais aussi par les tensions inflationnistes. Chaque jour nous publions leurs réponses aux questions que vous vous posez. Une série à lire et à conserver précieusement.
Raphaël Gallardo - DR
Faut-il s’inquiéter du ralentissement économique chinois ?
Oui d’un point de vue réel, c'est-à-dire à travers le canal des importations chinoises de matières premières et de biens d’investissement au cours du S1 2022. A partir du S2 2022, le passage à une politique économique plus franchement stimulante devrait permettre un rebond de l’économie chinoise.
L’inflation actuelle, d’où qu’elle vienne (matières premières, pénuries multiples, prix du carbone), est-elle transitoire ?
L’inflation liée aux goulets d’étranglement dans les chaines de valeur manufacturières devrait s’estomper au S2 2022. L’inflation énergétique devrait rester structurellement plus élevée en raison des coûts inhérents à la transition énergétique. L’inflation sous-jacente devrait rechuter en Europe et au Japon au S2 2022, mais pas aux Etats-Unis en raison des tensions sur les salaires et les loyers.
L’an prochain, les Etats retireront un peu plus leur soutien aux économies, sont-elles prêtes pour cela ?
En Europe et au Japon, le soutien budgétaire va s’accroître en 2022. Le resserrement budgétaire sera au contraire de l’ordre de 3 points de PIB aux Etats-Unis. Mais comme le stimulus budgétaire de 2021, qui a pris la forme de chèques et rabais fiscaux, a été largement épargné par les ménages, l’impact sur la croissance devrait être limité.
Les Banques centrales injecteront également moins de liquidités. Craignez-vous des tensions sur les taux d’intérêt et les marchés actions ?
Le resserrement monétaire a déjà commencé pour les marchés émergents et devrait se poursuivre. Dans les pays développés, ce seront les pays anglo-saxons qui devraient relever leurs taux en premier. En Europe, on assistera à un amenuisement des achats obligataires de la BCE. Dans un contexte de ralentissement économique mondial, avec en outre des surplus commerciaux chinois et pétroliers à recycler, les tensions sur les taux longs devraient être limitées dans les pays développés.
Estimez-vous que l’euro va continuer de se déprécier face au dollar ?
D’un point de vue macroéconomique, nos prévisions tablent sur une surperformance de l’économie américaine, avec un resserrement monétaire sensible, donc c’est un scénario favorable au dollar.
Après avoir été en retrait ces dernières années, pensez-vous que le sujet de la soutenabilité des dettes publiques doit faire son retour sur le devant de la scène ?
C’est un sujet qui est éludé en ce moment, sous prétexte des taux réels négatifs qui permettent de réduire le coût réel de la dette. Mais la question s’imposera à nouveau aux marchés lorsque les taux réels remonteront dans les pays avec un déficit d’épargne structurel comme les Etats-Unis, le Royaume-Uni…
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