Macro-économie / Taux / remises migratoires
Macro-économie / Taux
remises migratoires
Les remises migratoires ont marqué le pas en 2023 / Accélération attendue cette année et la suivante
Les remises migratoires n’ont pas affiché une grande forme en 2023. Les envois de fonds des migrants vers leur pays d’origine à revenu faible et intermédiaire n’ont augmenté "que" de 0,7 %, à 656 milliards de dollars, montrent des données de la Banque mondiale, après 8,3 % en 2022 (rattrapage post-pandémique). Rappelons que lors de la période précédant la crise pandémique, le taux de croissance annuel atteignait deux chiffres.
"Les migrations et les envois de fonds qui en découlent sont des moteurs essentiels du développement économique et humain", explique Iffath Sharif, directrice mondiale du pôle Protection sociale et emploi à la Banque mondiale. Les envois de fonds représentent une source essentielle de financement extérieur pour les pays en développement leur permettant de faire face à l’insécurité alimentaire et aux problèmes d’endettement. A tel point que l’an passé, ils ont excédé le montant des investissements étrangers directs et de l’aide publique au développement.
En 2023, les remises migratoires ont surtout progressé vers l’Amérique latine et les Caraïbes (7,7 %), l’Asie du Sud (5,2 %) et l’Asie de l’Est et le Pacifique (4,8 %, hors Chine). En revanche, les transferts d’argent vers l’Afrique subsaharienne ont connu une légère diminution de 0,3 %, tandis que le Moyen-Orient et l’Afrique du Nord ont enregistré une chute de près de 15 %, et l’Europe et l’Asie centrale une baisse de 10,3 %.
Dans le détail, au Moyen-Orient et l’Afrique du Nord, la dégringolade s’explique par la baisse des flux à destination de l’Égypte. "La disparité entre les taux de change officiels et parallèles a probablement orienté les envois de fonds vers des canaux informels. On observe d’ailleurs un rebond des flux officiels vers l’Égypte après l’unification des taux de change en mars 2024", note la Banque mondiale. En 2023, "l’Égypte a souffert d’une grave pénurie de devises étrangères en raison d’un système de change fixe et d’une monnaie locale surévaluée. Cette situation a conduit à l’émergence d’un marché parallèle, la monnaie égyptienne dépassant à un moment donné 70 livres égyptiennes pour un dollar américain [contre 50 aujourd’hui, ndlr], et a considérablement réduit les envois de fonds officiels des Égyptiens expatriés", rappelle l’institution de Washington.
Du côté de l’Europe et de l’Asie centrale, la baisse est due principalement à un ralentissement des transferts d’argent de la Fédération de Russie vers ses pays voisins. " Une dépréciation de 39 % du rouble russe par rapport au dollar américain en 2023 a diminué la valeur des transferts d’argent en provenance de Russie. En outre, les flux d’envois de fonds vers l’Ukraine et la Russie sont restés plus faibles que prévu en 2023 en raison des effets négatifs de la guerre en cours. La migration en provenance de Russie, importante en 2022, s’est ralentie, certains migrants choisissant de rentrer chez eux ", lit-on dans le rapport de la Banque mondiale.
Pour 2024, la Banque mondiale estime que les remises migratoires vers les pays à revenu faible et intermédiaire devraient croître à un rythme plus rapide de 2,3 %, même si cette progression sera inégale selon les régions. En 2025, elle devrait encore accélérer à 2,8 %. "Les risques potentiels de contraction des projections découleraient d’une croissance économique plus faible que prévu dans les pays à revenu élevé qui accueillent des migrants et de la volatilité des prix du pétrole et des taux de change", juge l’institution de Washington.
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